Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9631…8b1f sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 831d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$736 (-19%) realized −$766 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%21W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$421
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$862
sports 36% −$6
crypto 12% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -14.1% -22.3% 0% 0% -22.3%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 17 -18.3% -26.1% 35% 35% -17.0%
all 95 -49.3% -54.1% 22% 21% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.1% 21% -28.5%
10% -58.5% 20% -35.4%
15% -62.5% 18% -41.6%
20% -66.2% 16% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$26 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

831d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$766
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses21 / 74
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage831d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $37 $66 +$29 (+78%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $203 −$29 -14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $421 −$419 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $197 +$222 +113%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $308 +$224 +73%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $45 −$10 -21%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 −$5 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $78 −$61 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $85 +$35 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $46 +$42 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $147 +$148 +101%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 04 $172 −$169 -98%
Spread: Warriors (-13.5) Apr 04 $89 +$83 +92%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $29 +$15 +51%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Toledo Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Clemson win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Miami (FL) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will VCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$19 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Oct 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Oct 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5 Oct 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Oct 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Oct 21 $10 +$24 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Oct 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Oct 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Oct 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Oct 21 $27 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Oct 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Oct 21 $8 +$26 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Oct 21 $10 +$26 +257%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Oct 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Oct 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Oct 21 $85 +$100 +117%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Falcons vs. 49ers Oct 20 $99 +$19 +19%
Commanders vs. Cowboys Oct 20 $80 +$19 +24%
Packers vs. Cardinals Oct 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Giants vs. Broncos Oct 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Eagles vs. Vikings Oct 19 $78 +$22 +28%
Patriots vs. Titans Oct 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $421 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $419 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $197 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $56 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $455 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $216 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $36 16d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $41 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $132 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $78 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 49¢ $78 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $82 16d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $38 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $85 17d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $84 17d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $99 18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 51¢ $46 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 24d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $147 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.62 · official $108.93 (match) · 193 history records