Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x9631…29f1 sports 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+1%) realized +$158 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%77W / 55L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days+$374
14 days+$366
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 23% +$207
crypto 23% −$54
politics 21% +$31
sports 18% +$1
economics 11% −$11
other 3% −$81
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +45.5% +31.7% 75% 58% +26.7%
≤30d 41 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 32% -6.3%
≤90d 103 +3.2% -6.6% 59% 35% -7.9%
all 132 +2.6% -7.1% 58% 34% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 34% -8.8%
10% -16.0% 33% -17.5%
15% -24.1% 29% -25.5%
20% -31.6% 27% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,404
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses77 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions13
Markets (closed)132 / 146
History coverage138d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $302 $305 +$2 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $235 $233 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $213 $215 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 91¢ 52¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 45¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-43%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 16 $121 +$7 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $150 +$103 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $244 +$100 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $42 +$165 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $37 +$13 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 14 $40 −$37 -92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $106 +$7 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $16 +$14 +93%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $70 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $300 $0 -0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 07 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $237 −$9 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $11 +$19 +178%
Will Dan Muse win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 02 $51 −$51 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 02 $36 −$36 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $250 +$17 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $39 +$36 +93%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $500 +$8 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $29 +$1 +4%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $35 −$34 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $48 −$47 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 29 $61 +$24 +39%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $10 +$4 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $45 −$9 -21%
Will Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? May 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $34 +$93 +277%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $71 +$24 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 15 $172 +$13 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $200 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $220 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $313 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $128 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 2d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? SELL No 91¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 52¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $30 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY No 88¢ $40 5d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY No 91¢ $101 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $113 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $20 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,404.39 · official $1,404.39 (match) · 530 history records