Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x9631…89a1 sports 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61,644 (+6%) realized +$69,202 · open −$7,558
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%141W / 18L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$6,283per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$72,745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7,079
14 days+$6,486
30 days+$17,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 56% +$20,388
world 20% +$27,272
sports 12% +$1,877
tech 6% +$12,392
other 4% +$187
politics 3% −$1,114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.5% -5.5% 93% 7% -3.6%
≤30d 21 +4.0% -5.9% 86% 10% -3.2%
≤90d 70 +2.3% -7.4% 84% 9% -4.1%
all 159 +24.5% +12.6% 89% 8% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.6% 8% -2.7%
10% +1.8% 4% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -20.5%
20% -17.0% 3% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$3,881) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$528 vs −$330 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.53 per $1 lost it wins $12.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$72,745
Realized+$69,202
Unrealized−$7,558
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses141 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions5
Markets (closed)159 / 164
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$6,283
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 89¢ 66¢ $39,278 $29,143 −$10,135 (-26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $16,340 $18,422 +$2,083 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 81¢ $14,779 $14,752 −$27 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $9,740 $10,262 +$522 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 86¢ 86¢ $166 $166 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $864 −$17 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $294 +$5 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $28,384 +$1,246 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9,017 +$548 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $17,660 +$517 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3,965 +$273 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $874 +$25 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $500 +$9 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1,797 +$71 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,561 +$52 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $41,018 +$4,325 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $8,598 +$82 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $4,504 −$675 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 29 $70,002 +$6,679 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $46,752 +$4,078 +9%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $1,047 +$137 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 21 $10,001 −$52 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $27,092 +$785 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 15 $32,540 +$1,678 +5%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 11 $895 +$65 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $2,410 +$70 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $53,509 +$2,429 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 06 $33,062 +$1,237 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 01 $2,644 +$62 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $40,864 +$2,475 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $6,627 −$115 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 30 $8,539 +$473 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 29 $16,930 +$839 +5%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Apr 28 $3,983 +$164 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $65,292 +$10,310 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $567 +$27 +5%
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 21 $570 +$24 +4%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 21 $1,655 −$1,649 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $1,857 −$654 -35%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 15 $4,086 −$315 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 15 $9,566 +$934 +10%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 14 $320 +$19 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 14 $21,967 +$584 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $231 +$8 +3%
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 13 $358 +$19 +5%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Apr 13 $235 +$20 +8%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 12 $1,339 +$47 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 10 $41,150 +$3,364 +8%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 10 $482 +$91 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $12,925 +$458 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 87¢ $34 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 86¢ $133 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $162 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $29 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $3 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $8,335 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,726 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $24 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $9 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $148 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $22 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $198 16h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $200 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $266 19h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 87¢ $370 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $38 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $113 22h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 86¢ $173 32h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 83¢ $4 32h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 84¢ $66 32h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 83¢ $17 32h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 83¢ $78 32h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 82¢ $26 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $40 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $9 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $8 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72,745.28 · official $72,900.94 (match) · 3500 history records