Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

96 0x9630…7cee other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$65 (+44%) realized +$65 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+33.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+47.3%	+33.3%	83%	67%	+27.0%
≤30d	6	+47.3%	+33.3%	83%	67%	+27.0%
≤90d	6	+47.3%	+33.3%	83%	67%	+27.0%
all	6	+47.3%	+33.3%	83%	67%	+27.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.3%	67%	+27.0%
10%	+20.5%	67%	+14.9%
15%	+8.9%	50%	+3.8%
20%	-1.8%	50%	-6.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.8 per $1 lost it wins $12.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$65

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$40	$0	+0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$20	+$14	+70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$30	+$16	+52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$24	+238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$40	+$10	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$40	56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$40	56m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$34	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$46	3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	58¢	$20	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$10	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$30	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records