Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x962f…0649 world 48 markets active 3d ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-27%) realized −$50 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$28
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$1
other 24% −$19
crypto 22% −$18
tech 21% −$17
politics 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -47.8% -52.8% 0% 0% -54.4%
≤30d 41 -35.3% -41.5% 17% 17% -40.8%
≤90d 47 -19.6% -27.3% 23% 23% -39.5%
all 47 -19.6% -27.3% 23% 23% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 23% -39.5%
10% -34.2% 21% -45.3%
15% -40.6% 19% -50.6%
20% -46.4% 19% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 19¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -51%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 09 $5 −$1 -10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 09 $5 −$1 -12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +82%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $19 −$5 -26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +75%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +30%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 26 $4 −$3 -70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $4 +$3 +74%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 23 $1 $0 -13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr May 23 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? May 23 $1 $0 -29%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $1 $0 -27%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $6 −$5 -94%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 22 $2 $0 +20%
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -10%
Discord IPO before 2027? May 22 $3 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? May 20 $1 $0 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 17 $14 −$13 -98%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 17 $2 +$1 +61%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $1 +$5 +500%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 15 $2 +$1 +81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $0 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $2 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No $0 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on SELL Yes $0 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $0 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $0 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $0 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $1 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 18¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 19¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 65¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes $1 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 37¢ $4 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 50¢ $5 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 18¢ $1 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 51¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.87 · official $8.87 (match) · 183 history records