Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x962d…dc4c sports 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,040 (-14%) realized −$4,245 · open −$795
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 57L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$249
7 days−$351
14 days+$114
30 days−$988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$2,342
other 25% +$854
world 22% −$1,765
politics 12% −$2,222
tech 3% +$317
crypto 0% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -19.4% -27.1% 53% 27% -17.0%
≤30d 58 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 40% -14.3%
≤90d 116 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 41% -21.5%
all 116 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 41% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -21.5%
10% -25.0% 28% -29.0%
15% -32.3% 14% -35.9%
20% -38.9% 7% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$142 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$889
Realized−$4,245
Unrealized−$795
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage81d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $494 $490 −$4 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1,190 $399 −$792 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $203 −$35 -17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $153 +$21 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $151 −$35 -23%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$95 -47%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $145 +$70 +48%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $1,500 +$44 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $600 −$38 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $95 +$25 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$84 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $202 +$5 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $590 −$163 -28%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $436 −$31 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,325 +$201 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 +$4 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $69 −$14 -20%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $849 −$26 -3%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $889 +$39 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,300 +$427 +33%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $67 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $95 −$28 -30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $224 −$173 -77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $86 +$30 +35%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $55 −$54 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $260 +$118 +45%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $317 +$104 +33%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $219 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $506 +$239 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $178 +$41 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $251 −$247 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $300 −$147 -49%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $383 −$28 -7%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $233 +$52 +22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $293 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $456 −$163 -36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,022 −$1,008 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $141 +$77 +55%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $73 +$27 +38%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $198 +$97 +49%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $317 +$88 +28%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $151 +$31 +20%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$38 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $499 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $168 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $203 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $101 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $27 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $142 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $153 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 50¢ $21 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 29¢ $40 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 55¢ $76 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $50 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $101 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $64 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $101 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $497 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $97 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $114 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $216 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $145 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.20 · official $889.20 (match) · 353 history records