Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x962c…3d77 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$10 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 87% 13% -6.1%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 87% 13% -6.1%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 87% 13% -6.1%
all 15 +0.3% -9.3% 87% 13% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 13% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 13% -15.1%
15% -25.9% 13% -23.3%
20% -33.2% 13% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 48¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+107%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 48¢ 60¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 48¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$13 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.47 · official $62.47 (match) · 75 history records