Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9629…972b other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$239 (-18%) realized −$231 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 38% 38% -13.6%
≤30d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 38% 38% -13.6%
≤90d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 38% 38% -13.6%
all 8 +26.2% +14.2% 38% 38% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.2% 38% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 38% -21.8%
15% -6.7% 38% -29.4%
20% -15.8% 38% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$96 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $310 −$96 -31%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $57 +$245 +434%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $196 +$141 +72%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 +$47 +91%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $308 −$153 -50%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$92 -89%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 34m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 38m
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 20¢ $246 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $88 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $249 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $196 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 4¢ $156 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 8h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $57 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.67 · official $141.67 (match) · 21 history records