Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9629…d22d weather 570 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%197W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$23
14 days−$21
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$45
crypto 9% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -18.5% -26.3% 27% 25% -32.2%
≤30d 317 -4.5% -13.6% 35% 31% -16.8%
≤90d 569 -1.6% -10.9% 35% 30% -13.0%
all 569 -1.6% -10.9% 35% 30% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 30% -13.0%
10% -19.5% 27% -21.3%
15% -27.2% 24% -28.9%
20% -34.4% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses197 / 372
Open positions1
Markets (closed)569 / 570
History coverage81d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $0.99 (match) · 1313 history records