Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9629…ee15
crypto · 472 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,382 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,993 · open −$130
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,002
Realized−$2,993
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses237 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions17
Markets (closed)455 / 472
History coverage4d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day700.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 17 History 455 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,257
7 days−$2,993
14 days−$2,993
30 days−$2,993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $611 $758 +$147 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $302 $299 −$3 (-1%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 61¢ 92¢ $167 $254 +$86 (+51%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $193 $171 −$22 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $151 $148 −$3 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $84 $82 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 57¢ 48¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $75 $24 −$51 (-68%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 75¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 19¢ 2¢ $147 $12 −$136 (-92%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 21¢ 5¢ $24 $5 −$19 (-78%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 24¢ 2¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-92%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Over 48¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 65,000 and 70,000? Yes 34¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $226 +$70 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $134 −$129 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $112 −$106 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $89 −$26 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $291 +$433 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$49 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$97 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $199 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $317 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $46 −$43 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $56 −$53 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $272 +$58 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $365 +$33 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $510 +$192 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $254 −$119 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $197 −$190 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$52 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$35 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $125 +$132 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$133 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $218 −$174 -80%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 12 $290 −$170 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$22 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $254 +$54 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $245 +$166 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$78 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $67 +$29 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $126 −$123 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$49 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$31 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $237 +$50 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$2,469
tech 5% +$77
other 3% −$302
sports 1% −$430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil to win the second half? SELL No 50¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $14 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $43 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $35 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $39 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -10.0% -18.5% 52% 43% -13.5%
≤30d 455 -10.0% -18.5% 52% 43% -13.5%
≤90d 455 -10.0% -18.5% 52% 43% -13.5%
all 455 -10.0% -18.5% 52% 43% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover700.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 43% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 29% -21.8%
15% -33.5% 20% -29.3%
20% -40.0% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,001.51 · official $2,001.51 (match) · 3500 history records