Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9625…ec8e weather 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-3%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -5.0% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 65 -5.0% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 65 -5.0% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.6%
all 65 -5.0% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 0% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 0% -22.7%
15% -29.8% 0% -30.2%
20% -36.7% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage6d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $54 −$11 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $21 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $49 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 −$10 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $34 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $34 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $69 −$9 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $70 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $11 −$3 -29%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 18 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL No 41¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 41¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 61¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 36¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 36¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL No 47¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 48¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 59¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 45¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 45¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 49¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 49¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $21 19h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 45¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 45¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 23¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $12 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records