Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9624…e9e9 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
other 25% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 10% −$13
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 26 -2.3% -11.6% 31% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 77 -1.9% -11.2% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 78 -3.2% -12.4% 32% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage487d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $117 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $57 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -40%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $90 −$3 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $87 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $13 −$2 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $30 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $4 $0 +5%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $65 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $125 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $28 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $12 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $10 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $29 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $28 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $20 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $9 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $28 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records