Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9624…c90f other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-5%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$126
sports 4% −$18
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -26.1% -33.1% 36% 32% -38.7%
≤30d 25 -26.1% -33.1% 36% 32% -38.7%
≤90d 25 -26.1% -33.1% 36% 32% -38.7%
all 25 -26.1% -33.1% 36% 32% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 32% -38.7%
10% -39.5% 24% -44.5%
15% -45.3% 24% -49.9%
20% -50.7% 8% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $327 −$73 -22%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +161%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $98 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $94 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $92 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $94 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $41 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $94 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $161 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 13¢ $0 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.13 · official $97.13 (match) · 82 history records