Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
96 0x961f…ab51 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,788 (+11%) realized +$1,813 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 168d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1,316
sports 29% +$1,067
crypto 1% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.8% +24.7% 71% 71% -10.2%
≤30d 10 +157.2% +132.7% 70% 70% -11.6%
≤90d 13 +108.2% +88.4% 62% 62% -12.2%
all 28 +40.6% +27.2% 54% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.2% 50% -11.6%
10% +15.0% 50% -20.0%
15% +3.9% 50% -27.8%
20% -6.3% 32% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$675) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$465 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized+$1,813
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage168d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,146 −$2,124 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 +$24 +100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $961 +$1,188 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $675 +$942 +140%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $211 −$209 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $372 −$367 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$199 +1288%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 +$94 +119%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 08 $400 −$393 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 08 $1,039 +$369 +36%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $250 −$250 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Feb 10 $326 +$227 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO5) Feb 10 $299 +$26 +9%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $206 +$93 +45%
Will CA Huracán vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw? Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Feb 08 $100 +$212 +212%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $1,706 −$1,706 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12PM ET Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $2,790 +$1,393 +50%
Chargers vs. Broncos Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Packers vs. Vikings Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jan 04 $1,506 +$537 +36%
Celtics vs. Clippers Jan 04 $250 +$271 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $851 33m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 41m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $48 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,247 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $72 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,149 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $708 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $51 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 41¢ $675 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $211 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $214 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $214 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $158 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No $15 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $79 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Milwaukee Brewers 44¢ $400 73d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $1,039 74d
Bucks vs. Nets BUY Bucks 38¢ $50 74d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 84¢ $302 130d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 57¢ $250 130d
Grizzlies vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 59¢ $326 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.37 · official $925.37 (match) · 58 history records