Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x961b…8e22 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 14% −$8
other 5% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$76
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.7% 7% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 39 -8.2% -16.9% 15% 8% -14.3%
all 48 -6.8% -15.7% 17% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 6% -10.0%
10% -23.8% 4% -18.6%
15% -31.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -37.9% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage551d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $115 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 10 $20 +$6 +31%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Apr 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $50 $0 +0%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 23 $25 +$33 +132%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $105 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $13,515 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $2,269 −$8 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $9 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 27d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.25 · official $34.25 (match) · 195 history records