Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x961a…aa6a sports 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$699 (+1%) realized +$313 · open +$386
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%170W / 192L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$796est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$423
14 days+$588
30 days+$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,006
other 8% −$345
world 6% −$52
politics 0% +$22
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 41% +1.0%
≤30d 52 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 38% -2.9%
≤90d 329 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 40% -7.0%
all 362 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 40% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -8.4%
10% -20.4% 37% -17.2%
15% -28.1% 33% -25.2%
20% -35.1% 26% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$77 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$1,394
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$386
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses170 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$796
Open positions2
Markets (closed)362 / 364
History coverage217d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner INOX Division 67¢ 100¢ $687 $1,024 +$338 (+49%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 87¢ 100¢ $322 $370 +$48 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $453 +$451 +100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $306 +$305 +100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $245 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $317 −$317 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $9 +$3 +35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $299 −$48 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $176 +$79 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $452 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $302 −$138 -46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $165 +$85 +51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $341 +$26 +8%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$81 +79%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $167 +$82 +49%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $128 −$118 -92%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $148 +$113 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $202 −$4 -2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $254 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$19 +37%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $223 +$180 +80%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $105 −$30 -28%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 22 $18 −$12 -67%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $167 −$84 -50%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 21 $131 +$71 +55%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $126 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $481 −$65 -14%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $109 +$101 +92%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo May 20 $81 +$39 +48%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $50 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $192 +$157 +82%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $136 −$135 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $94 −$47 -50%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $590 +$27 +5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $59 −$33 -56%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $819 +$37 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship May 20 $64 −$7 -11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $513 +$140 +27%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 20 $100 +$70 +70%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner May 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 19 $106 +$94 +88%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 19 $107 +$45 +42%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 19 $124 +$55 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 87¢ $323 28m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 67¢ $573 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 67¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 67¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 67¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $903 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $108 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $111 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $96 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $82 14h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $34 15h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 99¢ $220 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 99¢ $300 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 99¢ $32 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 40¢ $9 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 40¢ $33 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 40¢ $59 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 43¢ $36 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 43¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 43¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 43¢ $7 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 43¢ $52 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 63¢ $59 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 51¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 51¢ $109 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 51¢ $82 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 51¢ $11 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 66¢ $16 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,394.30 · official $1,394.30 (match) · 2028 history records