Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x961a…494c crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%99W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$5
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$3
world 5% +$6
sports 4% −$3
other 2% −$14
politics 2% −$4
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 67% 42% -13.5%
≤30d 40 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 12% -11.2%
≤90d 85 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 6% -9.9%
all 110 +0.4% -9.1% 90% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses99 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage167d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5) Croatia 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$16 -35%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $68 +$2 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $27 +$3 +11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $51 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $107 −$61 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $106 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $103 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $96 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $87 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $86 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $84 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 87¢ $87 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $16 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $20 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $47 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $25 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $68 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $27 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $35 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $57 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $55 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $54 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.80 · official $101.80 (match) · 283 history records