Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
96 0x961a…e91c crypto 2138 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$650 (+3%) realized +$738 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%1175W / 671L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$1,282
sports 38% +$994
other 15% +$345
world 4% +$126
finance 0% −$30
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 447 +14.7% +3.8% 66% 65% +17.4%
≤30d 1388 +13.8% +2.9% 66% 66% +8.7%
≤90d 1846 +10.5% -0.1% 64% 63% +1.7%
all 1846 +10.5% -0.1% 64% 63% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 63% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 63% -8.1%
15% -18.4% 61% -17.0%
20% -26.4% 55% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$738
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1175 / 671
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1846 / 2138
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1846 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 68¢ 84¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 65¢ 72¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 22¢ 10¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-54%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 29¢ $12 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 5¢ $37 $8 −$29 (-78%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+29%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 51¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 60¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 34¢ 3¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-90%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$4 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$5 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$10 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$5 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$4 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +66%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 38m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 44m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 44m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 59m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.00 · official $217.19 · 3500 history records