Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x9615…8c8f other 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,176 (+1%) realized +$1,175 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1,432per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$19
14 days−$45
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$99
other 40% +$163
sports 12% +$1,122
economics 2% −$3
world 1% −$13
crypto 1% −$35
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +7.4% -2.9% 15% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 95 -1.2% -10.6% 13% 8% -9.3%
all 132 +8.7% -1.7% 24% 20% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 20% -9.0%
10% -11.1% 20% -17.7%
15% -19.7% 15% -25.6%
20% -27.6% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,995) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$11 · ×6.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$1,175
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,432
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $363 $364 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,205 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,388 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,427 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,934 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,904 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,787 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,277 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,783 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,443 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $4,357 −$6 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,790 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $84 +$54 +64%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,727 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $690 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $1,020 +$1 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $56 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $766 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $4,189 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $63 +$114 +180%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $49 +$54 +109%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $7,492 −$8 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,628 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $4,104 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $1,405 +$872 +62%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $2,673 −$3 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $1,431 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $4,976 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $2,470 −$2 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,286 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 28m
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $432 2h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $433 4h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,084 43h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,086 44h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,299 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,301 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,303 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,308 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,310 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,308 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $363 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,668 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,670 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,579 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,580 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,548 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,549 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,517 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,519 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,573 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,575 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,675 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,678 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,609 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,612 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,552 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.51 · official $363.51 (match) · 464 history records