Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
96 0x960c…e052 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,131 (+4%) realized +$1,131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate46%52W / 60L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$35
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$1,223
sports 32% −$150
politics 13% −$47
tech 8% −$68
economics 6% +$258
crypto 3% −$9
world 2% −$93
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +97.6% +78.8% 38% 38% -18.5%
≤30d 21 +73.9% +57.4% 38% 38% -10.7%
≤90d 21 +73.9% +57.4% 38% 38% -10.7%
all 112 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 30% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 30% -6.2%
10% -18.6% 24% -15.2%
15% -26.5% 19% -23.4%
20% -33.7% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$39 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses52 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage440d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$6 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $15 −$6 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 18 $36 +$40 +110%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$57 +1116%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$6 -5%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$35 +172%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 06 $182 +$49 +27%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 01 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $455 −$335 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? Feb 03 $172 −$11 -7%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 10 $730 −$236 -32%
Nothing Ever Happens: September Oct 01 $2,635 +$87 +3%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Sep 21 $53 +$24 +45%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Sep 17 $242 −$113 -46%
Will PARIVISION win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $34 −$16 -47%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Team Falcons Sep 13 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference? Sep 13 $1,370 +$11 +1%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. PARIVISION Sep 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs. Heroic Sep 13 $957 −$346 -36%
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 13 $40 +$12 +30%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. Nigma Galaxy Sep 13 $319 +$52 +16%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. BetBoom Team Sep 13 $1,267 +$244 +19%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Nigma Galaxy Sep 12 $592 +$110 +19%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Team Falcons Sep 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 31 $860 +$253 +29%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 31 $48 −$39 -81%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? Aug 22 $1,986 −$38 -2%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Aug 22 $500 +$23 +5%
US recession in 2025? Aug 22 $210 +$225 +107%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on August 1 at 5PM ET? Aug 02 $735 +$15 +2%
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? Jul 17 $1,142 +$60 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 55¢ $95 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 86¢ $76 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $31 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 39¢ $6 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $5 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $96 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $50 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 46¢ $100 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 378 history records