Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x960a…e8af crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$181
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$31
other 8% −$26
sports 2% $0
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -47.8% -52.8% 29% 29% -61.9%
≤30d 17 -21.7% -29.2% 29% 29% -42.3%
≤90d 42 -4.1% -13.2% 40% 40% -14.8%
all 42 -4.1% -13.2% 40% 40% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 40% -14.8%
10% -21.5% 38% -22.9%
15% -29.1% 38% -30.4%
20% -36.1% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage80d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -95%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$45 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$75 +500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $10 +$40 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 10 $10 +$30 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 10 $21 +$36 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 10 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 10 $42 +$40 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 10 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 10 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 10 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 10 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 28 $160 +$61 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 27 $30 +$6 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $80 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $35 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.97 · official $15.97 (match) · 134 history records