Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9607…b421 weather 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%138W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$16
14 days+$62
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% −$38
other 35% −$61
sports 5% +$14
crypto 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +6.8% -3.4% 69% 62% -6.1%
≤30d 137 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 66% -6.6%
≤90d 211 -4.7% -13.8% 65% 64% -14.2%
all 211 -4.7% -13.8% 65% 64% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 64% -14.2%
10% -22.0% 61% -22.4%
15% -29.6% 30% -29.9%
20% -36.5% 10% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses138 / 73
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)211 / 219
History coverage51d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 78¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? No 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? No 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? No 73¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? No 62¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 71¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$36 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $26 −$14 -57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 −$17 -48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$5 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 64¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 53¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 73¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 73¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 31h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? SELL No 74¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? BUY No 63¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 68¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 12¢ $11 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 27¢ $26 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 63¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.31 · official $53.31 (match) · 401 history records