Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x9605…1790 sports 2014 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%1261W / 807L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$92
14 days+$38
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$128
sports 30% −$31
other 4% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 827 -11.0% -19.5% 74% 68% -12.7%
≤30d 1155 -7.4% -16.2% 72% 66% -10.4%
≤90d 2068 -4.3% -13.4% 61% 57% -10.3%
all 2068 -4.3% -13.4% 61% 57% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 57% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 29% -18.9%
15% -29.3% 24% -26.7%
20% -36.2% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1261 / 807
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2068 / 2014
History coverage89d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2068 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Katarina Kujovic Katarina Kujovic 57¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
ITF Changwon: Dayeon Back vs Su Jeong Jang Dayeon Back 72¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 83¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11? No 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ITF Bol: Miriam Bulgaru vs Iva Primorac Miriam Bulgaru 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Mert Alkaya Mert Alkaya 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Santiago: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Andrea Collarini Andrea Collarini 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Clair Obscur (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series#3 Group C Clair Obscur 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Alves vs Faria Alves 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Roasso Kumamoto win on 2026-03-15? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Fujieda MYFC win on 2026-03-21? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Linda Noskova 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-03-14? No 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Over 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Cincinnati Reds 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Apex Mission Impossible - Game 1 Winner Dorado Gaming 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Stars vs. Wild Wild 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series #10 Group Stage R2 Esports Club 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Shevchenko vs. Humbert: Match O/U 21.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Santiago: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Andrea Collarini Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roasso Kumamoto win on 2026-03-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-03-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South Amer Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskies: O/U 152.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD La Equidad Seguros vs. CA Bucaramanga end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AD Cali win on 2026-03-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 152.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fijian Drua win? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 233.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 138.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Epitsentr Dunaivtsi win on 2026-03-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Morelos: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-03-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
DEL: Iserlohn Roosters vs. ERC Ingolstadt Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cap Cana: Mariano Navone vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hibernian FC vs. Livingston FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Córdoba CF (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Tarleton State Texans (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-03-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series Namibia A vs Uganda: Namibia A vs Uganda Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Lupus Esports vs Baam Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
SHL: Djurgaarden vs. Skellefteaa Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-03-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Austin: Caty McNally vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: O/U 159.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-03-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Magic (-14.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cap Cana: Luca Van Assche vs Raphael Collignon Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: McNally vs Tararudee Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.80 · official $15.64 (match) · 3500 history records