Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

96
0x9604…fc1d
crypto · 160 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$64,522 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72,266 · open +$7,744
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$325,269
Realized−$72,266
Unrealized+$7,744
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses124 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)150 / 160
History coverage234d
Avg bet$35,172
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 10 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$62,432
14 days−$42,571
30 days−$31,036
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $94,582 $91,979 −$2,603 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $80,906 $81,372 +$467 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $55,724 $58,847 +$3,122 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 85¢ 96¢ $33,107 $37,329 +$4,222 (+13%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 87¢ $21,660 $20,600 −$1,060 (-5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $14,345 $14,549 +$203 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $7,985 $8,760 +$776 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 64¢ $3,504 $5,519 +$2,016 (+58%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 96¢ $3,248 $3,838 +$590 (+18%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $2,463 $2,476 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $8,202 +$273 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 09 $26,835 −$20,379 -76%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $56,516 −$54,626 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $130,169 +$12,300 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? Jun 01 $19,718 +$776 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $152,677 +$19,085 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $127,437 +$11,535 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $52,479 +$9,314 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 09 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 09 $3,627 −$3,627 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 09 $2,354 +$298 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 09 $10,365 +$115 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 09 $12,476 +$561 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 09 $25,231 +$658 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 09 $38,252 +$4,208 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 09 $46,686 +$11,672 +25%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? Mar 26 $3,289 +$39 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 18 $8,387 −$8,387 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 18 $1,978 −$1,978 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $66,456 +$5,002 +8%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 16 $10,844 +$1,438 +13%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 14 $15,186 +$61 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $13,317 +$2,702 +20%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $81,289 +$16,695 +20%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Mar 08 $5,001 −$5,001 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 mi Mar 08 $23,228 −$23,228 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Mar 08 $1,223 −$1,223 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Mar 08 $62,736 −$62,736 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Mar 08 $1,825 −$1,825 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Mar 08 $2,003 −$2,003 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $17,058 −$13,035 -76%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 23-March 1? Mar 03 $284 +$6 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 February 23-March 1? Mar 03 $3,135 +$65 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 23-March 1? Mar 03 $6,561 +$82 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 1? Mar 02 $56 +$3 +5%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $5,215 +$73 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 01 $9,455 +$210 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $14,160 +$1,265 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $38,445 +$7,306 +19%
Grok 4.20 released by April 20? Feb 17 $13,774 +$529 +4%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi Feb 17 $20,006 +$1,884 +9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 14 $1,000 +$4,000 +400%
Grok 4.20 released by January 9? Jan 12 $164 +$85 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 03 $1,847 −$1,847 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 03 $9,554 −$6,514 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 03 $96,843 +$783 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of December 29 above $440? Jan 03 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 03 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 36% −$17,902
crypto 24% +$53,145
world 22% −$1,397
other 15% −$88,734
finance 2% +$406
tech 1% −$10,039
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 96¢ $2,203 0m
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 96¢ $24 38m
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 96¢ $18 57m
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 96¢ $120 12h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 96¢ $25 12h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 96¢ $74 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $970 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4,424 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $0 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $555 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1,222 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $120 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $200 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $400 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $800 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1,200 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $58 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $7,416 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $955 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $8,202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -40.0% -45.7% 50% 0% -35.0%
≤30d 7 -19.2% -26.9% 71% 14% -14.9%
≤90d 23 -23.4% -30.7% 70% 26% -11.0%
all 150 -6.7% -15.6% 83% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 13% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 5% -19.3%
15% -31.0% 3% -27.1%
20% -37.8% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325,269.13 · official $325,269.13 (match) · 1897 history records