Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
96 0x9602…7047 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$21
politics 34% −$16
sports 11% +$30
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 138 +0.7% -8.9% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage128d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $229 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $186 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $430 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,210 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $242 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 30 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $262 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $383 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $521 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $211 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $411 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $201 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $485 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $258 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $444 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $263 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 21d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 24d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 25d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 26d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $193 28d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $193 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $258 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $258 29d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $214 29d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $214 29d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $248 29d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $248 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 32d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $221 32d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $221 32d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 33d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 451 history records