Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
95 0x95fe…c68e crypto 810 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,651 (+5%) realized +$3,655 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate80%573W / 139L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 5% -8.4%
≤30d 131 -4.1% -13.3% 87% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 281 -5.9% -14.8% 89% 3% -8.9%
all 712 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 6% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 6% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 4% -21.4%
15% -26.2% 4% -29.0%
20% -33.4% 3% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$47 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1,735
Realized+$3,655
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses573 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions98
Markets (closed)712 / 810
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 29? No 99¢ 98¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $147 $146 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 29? No 99¢ 98¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 27? No 98¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 27? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 27? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 29? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 28? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 29? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 26? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $109 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down on June 27? Jun 26 $3 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 26? Jun 26 $288 +$11 +4%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 26? Jun 26 $264 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $9 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $232 +$18 +8%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$3 +218%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $9 11m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $6 11m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $27 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $27 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Solana Up or Down on June 27? SELL Down 62¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $27 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Solana Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on July 2? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $11 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $103 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $37 4h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $27 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $103 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $18 4h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.60 and $0.70 on July 2? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on July 2? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on July 2? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on July 2? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,734.59 · official $1,734.59 (match) · 3500 history records