Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f9…51cb politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$4
other 19% −$2
sports 5% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage82d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $227 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $168 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $167 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $58 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $54 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $54 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $54 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $54 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $54 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $54 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 6d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 9d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 11d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 11d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $54 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $54 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 16d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 19d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 25d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 25d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 26d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $55 26d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $55 27d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 27d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $55 28d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 31d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 31d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 31d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $56 31d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.87 · official $53.87 (match) · 189 history records