Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f7…5541 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,685 (+5%) realized +$3,762 · open −$1,077
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$2,168per market
Trades / day169.6pace
Fees−$1,007est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$4,401
other 17% +$4,404
crypto 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+73.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +91.6% +73.4% 72% 28% -2.7%
≤30d 25 +91.6% +73.4% 72% 28% -2.7%
≤90d 25 +91.6% +73.4% 72% 28% -2.7%
all 25 +91.6% +73.4% 72% 28% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.4% 28% -2.7%
10% +56.8% 24% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here +41.6% 24% -20.5%
20% +27.7% 24% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,096) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +166% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$832 vs −$723 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,952
Realized+$3,762
Unrealized−$1,077
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,007
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2,168
Trades / day169.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain to win the second half? No 20¢ 0¢ $1,080 $3 −$1,077 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $10,405 +$7,168 +69%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $2,589 +$1,298 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2,011 −$61 -3%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $224 +$4 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 20 $908 +$26 +3%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $1,198 +$3,920 +327%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $3,602 −$3,600 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $259 −$226 -87%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 20 $540 +$350 +65%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $299 −$298 -100%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $1,000 +$785 +78%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,001 −$700 -70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $401 −$35 -9%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $6,053 +$557 +9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,012 +$19 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $1,004 +$23 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,000 +$164 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,002 +$9 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,385 +$26 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,058 +$40 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3,279 −$140 -4%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2,096 +$21 +1%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6,540 +$160 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,053 +$392 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $260 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $26 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $578 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $84 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $1,199 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $8 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $8 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $89 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $205 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $84 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $542 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $1,219 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $100 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $208 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $421 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $18 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $105 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $60 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 81¢ $2,488 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 88¢ $34 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 74¢ $4 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 74¢ $45 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 74¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 74¢ $75 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,951.96 · official $1,951.96 (match) · 673 history records