Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x95f6…5fb5 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$2
other 13% +$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 0% -9.3%
all 31 +0.3% -9.2% 58% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage474d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $97 −$5 -5%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $35 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $94 +$5 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 +$4 +7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $18 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 −$2 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 04 $14 $0 +3%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 18 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $52 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $52 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $29 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $39 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $19 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $17 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $52 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $38 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records