Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f5…779f crypto 74 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3424 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,945 (-58%) realized −$6,895 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day3424.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$505
other 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3424 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -64.6% -68.0% 17% 4% -48.3%
≤30d 104 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 13% -24.7%
≤90d 104 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 13% -24.7%
all 104 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 13% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3424.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.5% 13% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 5% -31.9%
15% -48.1% 3% -38.5%
20% -53.2% 0% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
46.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$41 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,875
Realized−$6,895
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 70
Open positions31
Markets (closed)104 / 74
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day3424.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 82¢ 91¢ $61 $68 +$7 (+11%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 82¢ 97¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+18%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 33¢ 86¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+163%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? Yes 18¢ 78¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+331%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? No 62¢ 65¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $9 $14 +$6 (+69%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? No 44¢ 56¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+26%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? No 86¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 43¢ 34¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? Yes 24¢ 56¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+131%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? No 16¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Yes 72¢ 14¢ $14 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? No 12¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? Yes 80¢ 8¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? Yes 37¢ 6¢ $9 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+75%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 17¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $344 −$344 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $328 −$328 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $47 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $144 −$26 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $160 −$23 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $119 −$39 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $119 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $232 −$64 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $278 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $106 −$31 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $116 +$24 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $367 −$57 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $155 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $202 −$21 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $135 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $126 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $149 +$61 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $144 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $129 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $210 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $294 −$31 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,874.98 · official $2,874.96 (match) · 3500 history records