Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f4…b8b0 crypto 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%137W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$331
14 days−$449
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$357
sports 9% +$65
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -40.4% -46.1% 28% 25% -39.2%
≤30d 267 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 49% -16.3%
≤90d 267 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 49% -16.3%
all 267 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 49% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 49% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 46% -24.3%
15% -32.1% 42% -31.6%
20% -38.7% 37% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses137 / 130
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage20d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 53¢ 57¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$14 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$16 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $22 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $32 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $17 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $93 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $47 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $72 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.00 · official $11.00 · 861 history records