Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f2…dd7e sports 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%24W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$6
politics 21% −$4
other 19% −$2
economics 8% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
culture 6% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 227 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses24 / 203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage170d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $28 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $138 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $34 $0 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $148 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $260 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $85 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $36 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $31 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $32 14d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $27 27d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $28 27d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $40 34d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $41 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 94¢ $34 88d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 94¢ $34 89d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $35 89d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $35 89d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 89d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $32 89d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $40 89d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 89d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $31 89d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $31 90d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $32 90d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $31 90d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $32 90d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $32 90d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $41 90d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $41 90d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 91d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $33 91d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $34 91d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $39 91d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $39 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 830 history records