Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f1…9087 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$768 (-10%) realized −$241 · open −$527
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,565per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,058
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 67% -20.7%
≤30d 3 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 67% -20.7%
≤90d 3 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 67% -20.7%
all 3 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 67% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 67% -20.7%
10% -27.6% 0% -28.2%
15% ← realistic here -34.6% 0% -35.2%
20% -41.0% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$1,015 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$241
Unrealized−$527
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,565
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 40¢ $379 $320 −$59 (-16%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $469 $1 −$468 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $1,364 +$275 +20%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $1,476 +$209 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $1,473 −$1,015 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 14m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $402 14m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,614 20m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $41 21m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $22 22m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 33¢ $54 26m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $57 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $123 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $6 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $190 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $63 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $216 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $107 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 33¢ $14 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $136 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $709 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 44¢ $2 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $15 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $15 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 76¢ $32 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $302 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $55 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $123 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $220 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $581 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $701 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $55 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $26 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.94 · official $320.94 (match) · 84 history records