Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95f1…6e6f sports 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,459 (-8%) realized −$1,428 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate76%91W / 29L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$74
14 days−$621
30 days−$1,363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 0% -17.0%
≤30d 50 -12.5% -20.8% 66% 12% -16.8%
≤90d 120 -4.3% -13.4% 76% 18% -16.3%
all 120 -4.3% -13.4% 76% 18% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 18% -16.3%
10% -21.7% 8% -24.3%
15% -29.3% 5% -31.6%
20% -36.2% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$93 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$1,428
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses91 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage59d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 84¢ 78¢ $400 $369 −$31 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $401 −$72 -18%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $400 +$7 +2%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $97 −$10 -10%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $100 −$15 -15%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $100 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $19 +$1 +6%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $98 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 07 $93 +$6 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $512 −$463 -90%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi Jun 07 $501 −$2 -0%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $501 +$20 +4%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $601 −$113 -19%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki Jun 07 $601 −$70 -12%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $602 +$57 +10%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Philip Henning Jun 04 $100 +$10 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $353 −$50 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $512 −$448 -88%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $701 +$50 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $83 −$81 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $280 +$504 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $30 −$8 -27%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $30 +$1 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $262 −$231 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $122 −$103 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $254 −$248 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $511 −$425 -83%
Chisinau: Ilya Snitari vs Zdenek Kolar May 26 $602 +$78 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 26 $201 −$200 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova May 26 $501 +$26 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 25 $500 +$15 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Kosice: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Martin Krumich May 25 $501 +$53 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens May 25 $501 +$36 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $501 +$20 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $401 +$20 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch May 24 $401 +$21 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova May 24 $400 +$16 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 24 $400 +$8 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $400 +$12 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Belinda Bencic May 24 $401 +$29 +7%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $401 +$43 +11%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $724 +$44 +6%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $401 +$20 +5%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 84¢ $402 28m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 77¢ $329 36m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 93¢ $401 54m
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot SELL Raphael Perot 100¢ $407 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 98¢ $400 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 87¢ $88 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 96¢ $97 2d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Nikola Bartunkova 60¢ $1 7d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Nikola Bartunkova 79¢ $84 7d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Nikola Bartunkova 92¢ $100 7d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $111 7d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Zhizhen Zhang 90¢ $100 7d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Nuno Borges 99¢ $100 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter BUY Antonia Ruzic 94¢ $19 9d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $99 9d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan BUY Adam Walton 99¢ $98 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $99 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Tatjana Maria 94¢ $93 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 2¢ $49 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $512 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 95¢ $499 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Kamilla Rakhi BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 95¢ $501 9d
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $520 9d
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu BUY Katie Volynets 96¢ $501 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi SELL Aliaksandra Sasnovich 78¢ $488 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 95¢ $601 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki SELL Tatjana Maria 82¢ $532 9d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki BUY Tatjana Maria 92¢ $601 9d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert SELL Pierre-Hugues Herbert 100¢ $659 9d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 91¢ $602 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.05 · official $369.05 (match) · 249 history records