Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x95f1…c301 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$17 (+7%) realized +$17 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day34.7pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-12.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-3.4%	-12.6%	44%	33%	-5.8%
≤30d	18	-3.4%	-12.6%	44%	33%	-5.8%
≤90d	18	-3.4%	-12.6%	44%	33%	-5.8%
all	18	-3.4%	-12.6%	44%	33%	-5.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-12.6%	33%	-5.8%
10% ← realistic here	-21.0%	22%	-14.8%
15%	-28.6%	22%	-23.0%
20%	-35.6%	17%	-30.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized+$17

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage2d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day34.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	51¢	55¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$15	+$34	+220%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$34	−$26	-75%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-56%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-49%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	$0	-35%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 15	$58	+$2	+3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$4	+87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$6	+$2	+40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	+$4	+385%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	$0	+6%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$70	+$9	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	95¢	$49	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$4	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	10¢	$5	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	49¢	$19	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	28¢	$1	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$5	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Team Vitality	7¢	$0	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Team Vitality	47¢	$2	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$4	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	22¢	$1	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL XLG Gaming	2¢	$0	5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	22¢	$2	5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL EDward Gaming	70¢	$11	5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY EDward Gaming	64¢	$10	6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL XLG Gaming	36¢	$11	6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	19¢	$2	7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL EDward Gaming	81¢	$37	7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	20¢	$1	7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY EDward Gaming	82¢	$35	7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	33¢	$5	7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY EDward Gaming	57¢	$2	17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2	17h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.23 · official $6.23 (match) · 55 history records