Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x95ed…4af7 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$27 (-63%) realized −$28 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%1W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-79.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-77.2%	-79.3%	12%	12%	-76.8%
≤30d	8	-77.2%	-79.3%	12%	12%	-76.8%
≤90d	8	-77.2%	-79.3%	12%	12%	-76.8%
all	8	-77.2%	-79.3%	12%	12%	-76.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-79.3%	12%	-76.8%
10%	-81.3%	12%	-79.0%
15%	-83.1%	12%	-81.0%
20%	-84.8%	12%	-82.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -77% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.14 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized−$28

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses1 / 7

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Under	24¢	28¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+21%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	14¢	8¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$5	+$4	+83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	24¢	$5	1m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$5	3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$3	22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners	BUY Under	38¢	$2	42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	12¢	$1	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.59 · official $6.59 (match) · 11 history records