Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95ed…611e world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1
other 27% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% −$8
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 62% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -0.5% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 30 -0.0% -9.6% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 57 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage529d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $108 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $53 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $105 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $73 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $265 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $64 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Dec 09 $5 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Auckland City end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 22 $29 $0 +2%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 15 $29 −$1 -2%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 11 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 08 $29 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $17 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $15 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $17 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.15 · official $35.69 (match) · 211 history records