Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95ec…3484 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-1%) realized −$153 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%75W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$596
7 days−$380
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$115
sports 43% −$878
crypto 2% +$208
world 1% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -45.9% -51.1% 27% 27% -22.4%
≤30d 30 -29.0% -35.7% 37% 33% -13.9%
≤90d 217 -16.2% -24.2% 35% 34% -11.4%
all 217 -16.2% -24.2% 35% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 34% -11.4%
10% -31.5% 32% -19.9%
15% -38.1% 32% -27.6%
20% -44.1% 30% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$56 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses75 / 142
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions2
Markets (closed)217 / 219
History coverage58d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $201 $199 −$2 (-1%)
Will Viggo Björck be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $122 −$120 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $91 +$81 +89%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$93 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $79 −$77 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $173 −$170 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $133 −$130 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $313 +$150 +48%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -33%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -56%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $456 +$377 +83%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $230 −$226 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $173 −$170 -98%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$73 +103%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $127 +$185 +146%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 11 $5 +$12 +237%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 10 $10 −$2 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Linda Noskova May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 - 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers F May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 May 10 $0 $0 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Fulham FC 1 - 2 AFC Bournemouth? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Elche CF 2 - 1 Deportivo Alavés? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 0 Chelsea FC? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $204 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $122 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 52¢ $91 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $10 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 30h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $79 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $173 38h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $133 45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $313 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $143 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $456 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $230 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $51 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $122 11d
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 23¢ $5 11d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.65 · official $199.65 (match) · 523 history records