Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95ea…b56f other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$408 (-41%) realized −$282 · open −$126
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$15
14 days−$290
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$125
politics 18% −$146
sports 15% −$145
weather 1% +$1
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.1% +7.8% 57% 43% +12.3%
≤30d 27 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 37% -66.5%
≤90d 27 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 37% -66.5%
all 27 -15.0% -23.1% 41% 37% -66.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 37% -66.5%
10% -30.5% 33% -69.7%
15% -37.2% 22% -72.6%
20% -43.4% 22% -75.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$20 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized−$282
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)27 / 39
History coverage16d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $305 $210 −$94 (-31%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $77 $64 −$13 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $28 −$5 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 14¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-53%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 52¢ 18¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-66%)
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $21 +$2 +10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $17 +$10 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $147 −$145 -99%
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $4 −$3 -77%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -51%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $170 −$143 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $10 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $7 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 66¢ $8 3d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 5d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 5d
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 6d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 56¢ $147 7d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $150 7d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $129 7d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $12 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 43¢ $2 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.46 · official $390.29 (match) · 96 history records