Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95e7…38f1 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$6
politics 24% −$11
other 23% −$19
crypto 10% −$2
economics 5% +$2
world 5% −$21
culture 3% −$5
tech 2% −$5
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 62 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 139 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 115
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage107d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 90¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $210 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $315 +$1 +0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $190 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $774 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $97 $0 +0%
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $49 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 07 $276 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $117 −$2 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 06 $42 $0 -1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $41 −$1 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 04 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $52 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $262 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $29 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $62 1h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $19 1h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 15h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $53 16h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $54 24h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $60 24h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $61 28h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $1 29h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $19 29h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1 33h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 33h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $57 34h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $58 39h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $43 39h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $44 46h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $48 47h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $18 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $5 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.35 · official $60.35 (match) · 563 history records