trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Spurs | 70¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $2 | +$3 | +170% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $2 | −$1 | -71% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $3 | +$1 | +34% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 25% | 25% | -22.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 25% | 25% | -22.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 25% | 25% | -22.0% |
| all | 8 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 25% | 25% | -22.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.2% | 25% | -22.0% |
| 10% | -36.0% | 25% | -29.5% |
| 15% | -42.2% | 12% | -36.3% |
| 20% | -47.8% | 12% | -42.5% |