Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x95e5…c974
weather · 871 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$110 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$121 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$143
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses576 / 279
Open positions16
Markets (closed)855 / 871
History coverage51d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 855 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$183
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 88¢ 100¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 71¢ 69¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 48¢ 100¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+107%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 69¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 77¢ 86¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? No 51¢ 56¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? No 92¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 63¢ 20¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? No 82¢ 40¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 66¢ 20¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? No 19¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 20¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$7 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$10 +69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$7 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +262%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$11 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$87
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $21 1m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 17m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $7 18m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $7 28m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $21 33m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $7 33m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $14 35m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 48¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 48¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 +22.8% +11.1% 74% 47% +7.9%
≤30d 397 -16.4% -24.4% 48% 31% -13.6%
≤90d 855 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 51% -4.7%
all 855 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 51% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 51% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 40% -13.8%
15% -24.4% 24% -22.2%
20% -31.8% 13% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.34 · official $141.60 · 1906 history records