Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x95e1…f468 crypto 56 markets active 5d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$228 (-3%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%33W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$205
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$177
sports 12% −$87
other 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -62.9% -66.4% 29% 14% -41.3%
≤30d 15 -51.4% -56.1% 33% 20% -21.7%
≤90d 56 -13.1% -21.4% 59% 30% -13.2%
all 56 -13.1% -21.4% 59% 30% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 30% -13.2%
10% -28.9% 18% -21.5%
15% -35.8% 9% -29.1%
20% -42.1% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses33 / 23
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage65d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$23 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $181 +$61 +34%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 14 $56 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 14 $46 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 14 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 14 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 14 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 14 $387 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 14 $384 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 14 $415 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 13 $378 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 13 $30 +$56 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 13 $313 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 13 $305 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 13 $285 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 13 $280 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 13 $277 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 13 $267 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 13 $258 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 13 $241 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 13 $228 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 13 $206 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 13 $198 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 13 $153 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 13 $132 +$22 +16%
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Euro Apr 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 13 $140 +$43 +31%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Pla Apr 13 $70 +$7 +10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Clos Apr 13 $60 +$9 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Q Apr 13 $50 −$7 -13%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) Apr 13 $25 −$13 -52%
Dota 2: OG vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualif Apr 13 $79 −$7 -9%
Wuning 2: Linang Xiao vs Blake Ellis Apr 13 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $50 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $50 6d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $50 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $242 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $181 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $56 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $46 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records