Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95dc…4b45 weather 381 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (901 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24,044 (+4%) realized +$23,552 · open +$492
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%304W / 419L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,736per market
Trades / day901.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$161,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$39,588
other 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (901 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 723 -24.6% -31.8% 42% 3% -5.3%
≤30d 723 -24.6% -31.8% 42% 3% -5.3%
≤90d 723 -24.6% -31.8% 42% 3% -5.3%
all 723 -24.6% -31.8% 42% 3% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover901.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 3% -5.3%
10% -38.3% 3% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -44.3% 3% -22.7%
20% -49.7% 3% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$10 · ×13.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.83 per $1 lost it wins $9.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$161,468
Realized+$23,552
Unrealized+$492
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses304 / 419
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions81
Markets (closed)723 / 381
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$1,736
Trades / day901.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 81 History 723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $15,398 $15,408 +$10 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10,569 $10,575 +$5 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,990 $9,990 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $8,396 $8,400 +$4 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $7,336 $7,396 +$60 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,325 $6,329 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,029 $6,032 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,120 $5,123 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,022 $5,025 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,861 $4,864 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,544 $4,547 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,129 $4,131 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,809 $3,811 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,685 $3,687 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,321 $3,322 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,230 $3,232 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,061 $3,063 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,981 $2,983 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,775 $2,777 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,664 $2,665 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,586 $2,588 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,538 $2,540 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,400 $2,401 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,216 $2,217 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,888 $1,889 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 419 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Red Wings vs. Senators Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-02-20? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Clippers: O/U 215.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Wyoming Cowboys (-8.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-20? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 3 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 159.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Wrexham AFC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$17 -208%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union have less than 35M viewers? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs. UT Martin Skyhawks Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Merida Open Akron: Cristina Bucsa vs Donna Vekic Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during Board of Peace even Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Critical Discord Incident by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Boston Terriers vs. Colgate Raiders (W) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Stade de Reims vs. Amiens SC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on February Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs. NEC end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Playoffs Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-01? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
NK Celje vs. FC Drita: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Adam Walton vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffs Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Western Michigan Broncos: O/U 159.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last less than 2 seconds during the Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 1? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be betwee Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Hershey Bears Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $200 0m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $147 0m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $193 0m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $193 0m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $193 0m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 100¢ $16 1m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $18 1m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $319 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $46 17m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $18 20m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 22m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $66 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $40 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $214 24m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161,467.78 · official $161,467.41 (match) · 3500 history records