Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95db…8cd6 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
politics 17% $0
other 14% $0
crypto 12% −$1
tech 7% +$1
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 0% -9.2%
all 35 -2.0% -11.4% 26% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage318d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $27 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $27 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Aug 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 11 $45 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $190 August 4–10? Aug 11 $0 $0 -62%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $49 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $29 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $31 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $28 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $28 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $25 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $27 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $12 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $27 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $23 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.27 · official $30.27 (match) · 106 history records