Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95d9…5961 world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%23W / 55L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
politics 22% $0
other 20% $0
sports 9% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 26 -0.0% -9.6% 35% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 68 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 1% -9.5%
all 78 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses23 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage323d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 27¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 −$3 -22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $36 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 03 $114 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $3 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $33 +$4 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $26 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $28 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $92 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $12 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $12 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $33 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $3 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $36 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $36 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $36 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $40 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $40 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records