Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x95d9…cf51 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-26.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-18.8%	-26.5%	33%	28%	-53.9%
≤30d	18	-18.8%	-26.5%	33%	28%	-53.9%
≤90d	18	-18.8%	-26.5%	33%	28%	-53.9%
all	18	-18.8%	-26.5%	33%	28%	-53.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-26.5%	28%	-53.9%
10% ← realistic here	-33.6%	28%	-58.3%
15%	-40.0%	17%	-62.3%
20%	-45.9%	11%	-66.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -28% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	0¢	60¢	$0	$3	+$3 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$4	-35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 16	$32	−$30	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Jun 16	$5	$0	+0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$5	$0	-0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	Jun 16	$1	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Jun 16	$2	$0	-12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Jun 16	$1	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$5	−$1	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$26	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$27	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	43m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	44m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$5	44m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	SELL No	85¢	$1	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	49m
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	SELL Yes	95¢	$1	50m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	SELL Yes	66¢	$1	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$5	1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	SELL No	4¢	$1	1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	70¢	$5	1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju	BUY No	85¢	$1	2h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY No	5¢	$1	2h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY Yes	96¢	$1	2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	76¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.12 · official $2.55 (match) · 41 history records