Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95d6…668a other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 28L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$9
other 31% +$4
politics 10% +$12
crypto 7% −$1
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 10 -4.7% -13.8% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 18 -5.3% -14.3% 22% 0% -10.8%
all 59 -0.7% -10.1% 53% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.0%
10% -18.7% 3% -17.7%
15% -26.6% 3% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $6 −$3 -43%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $42 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $47 −$2 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -34%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $8 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 +10%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 03 $17 $0 +2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $7 +$12 +176%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files? Jun 01 $5 $0 -4%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $12 $0 +4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $23 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $43 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $43 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $0 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $0 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $1 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $1 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $24 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $8 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $8 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $41 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records