Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x95d5…d147
other · 98 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$16 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses92 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage461d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? No 97¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 11 $46 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on March 26? Mar 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 26 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 202 Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 07 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 18? Dec 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on December Dec 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 18 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 27? Dec 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 115m and 129m? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on November 27 Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Nov 27 $26 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% −$25
crypto 23% +$8
world 7% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 4h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 9d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $6 29d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 44d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 48d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 54d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 57d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 62d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 76d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 78d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $2 78d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 78d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $4 78d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 93d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 101d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $36 116d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $36 124d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 100¢ $28 132d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $28 136d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $2 136d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $2 136d
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 202 BUY No 100¢ $1 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 97 -3.5% -12.7% 95% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 4% -10.3%
10% -21.1% 1% -18.9%
15% -28.7% 1% -26.7%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.98 · official $47.98 (match) · 194 history records