Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x95cf…e7dd
world · 87 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$172 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$828
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions56
Markets (closed)31 / 87
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 56 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$80
14 days−$44
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 33¢ 26¢ $110 $89 −$21 (-20%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 94¢ 96¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 85¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-11%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 64¢ 90¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 64¢ 47¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-27%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 48¢ 56¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026? No 86¢ 64¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 64¢ 66¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? No 84¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? No 79¢ 76¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 90¢ 86¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? No 94¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Government shutdown by October 1? Yes 61¢ 52¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 81¢ 69¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 82¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+21%)
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Yes 76¢ 47¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $80 +$22 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $80 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$13 +45%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $46 −$22 -48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$3 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$24 +47%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $5 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$9 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$25 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in more than 6 days? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during C May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? May 25 $1 +$1 +122%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Trump say "Cuba" this week? May 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 20 $5 +$1 +11%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Xi" this week? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" this week? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% −$48
other 16% −$9
sports 12% −$48
politics 6% −$35
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$11
finance 2% +$7
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $82 32m
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 34m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 35m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $30 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $35 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 23¢ $19 1h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 86¢ $30 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 65¢ $30 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $20 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $20 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL No 100¢ $102 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 78¢ $80 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $81 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 26h
Government shutdown by October 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 26h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 26h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 64¢ $20 26h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $10 27h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $50 27h
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 0¢ $50 27h
Social Security insolvent by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $80 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.7% -31.0% 55% 36% -24.2%
≤30d 31 -24.0% -31.2% 58% 42% -18.8%
≤90d 31 -24.0% -31.2% 58% 42% -18.8%
all 31 -24.0% -31.2% 58% 42% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 42% -18.8%
10% -37.8% 26% -26.6%
15% -43.8% 13% -33.7%
20% -49.3% 6% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.27 · official $828.23 (match) · 140 history records